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疫情4月底控制住?发源地不一定在中国?出院患者"复阳"?钟南山最新发声来了
来源:新华网,央视新闻,环球时报英文版网站,广州日报,中国青年网,CGTN    日期: 2020-03-02
 

2月27日,广州市政府新闻办在广州医科大学举行疫情防控专场新闻通气会,国家卫健委高级别专家组组长、中国工程院院士钟南山等专家详细回答了社会关心的问题。对于疫情何时能控制住,疫情发源地是否在中国,出院患者"复阳"等情况,钟南山这样说:

 

Zhong Nanshan, head of the high-level expert group appointed by China's National Health Commission to fight the COVID-19, and other experts from Guangzhou Medical University brief the media on the latest COVID-19 prevention and control measures.

 

 

此次疫情传染性高 1人能传染2到3人

 

钟南山表示,这次疫情传染性可能比以前高。虽然没有完整的统计,但基本判断是大概一个人能传染2到3个人,重症病人传染性会高一些,轻症的会比较低一些。一人传染2到3人,说明传染非常快。

 

On average, one patient of the novel coronavirus can usually infect two to three others, which means it spreads very fast, Zhong said.  

 

 

康复后感染率低

 

对于康复患者“复阳”问题,钟南山表示,对这个病,我们是一边发展一边看,我们不能下绝对的定论。但是一般来说,这些病毒的感染规律都是一样的。只要身体出现IgG抗体,而且增加很多,一般来说这些病人不会再被感染。IgG抗体增加4倍,就可以给别的病人捐献救治血浆了。这是微生物的规律。

 

不是说一发现有病毒残余,就认为患者再度感染。IgG抗体是针对新冠病毒的抗体。当其体内已产生足够量的抗体,一般就不会感染的。

 

至于肠道粪便还有病毒的残余,要考虑是不是因为肠道比较长、还没有被排出。现在的要害是,“复阳”后会不会传染给别人,这还有待进一步的观察。

 

 

Addressing the question that some patients discharged from hospital after initial recovery have tested positive for the coronavirus for a second time, Zhong said COVID-19 is a new infectious disease, the process of which is not known yet. "We can't draw an absolute conclusion at present and have to follow its development closely. But according to the laws of microorganisms, those with enough antibodies will not be infected again," Zhong said.

 

一个月内研发出新药是不可能的

 

针对新药的研究,钟南山表示在十几天、二十天甚至一个月内研发出新药是不可能的,这需要进行持续的科学研究。

 

As for new drugs, Zhong said it is impossible to develop new drugs to treat the epidemic within only one month, as it takes continuous scientific research.

 

 

疫情不一定发源在中国?

 

钟南山表示,对疫情的预测,我们首先考虑中国,没考虑国外,现在国外出现了一些情况。疫情首先出现在中国,不一定是发源在中国。

 

"Though the COVID-19 was first discovered in China, it does not mean that it originated from China," said Zhong.

 

 

据《广州日报》报道,钟院士在会后补充,从科研角度看,“首先发现”和“发源”不能划上等号,但我们也不能就此判断疫情是来自国外。只有对新冠病毒进行溯源,有了结果,才可能回答这个问题。

 

国家强力干预对控制疫情起到关键作用

 

对病情的预测会是什么样?钟南山表示,柳叶刀上发表过一个权威的论述预测,它是用传统模型以及他们著名的流行病学家预测。估计2月初,中国的病人应该达到16万例。但是我们也根据自己的团队,广州医科大学重点实验室基础研究团队,在传统模型的基础上加上了两个比较因素,第一个是国家的强力干预,第二个是春节后可能的回流高峰,我们也做出预测模型。但是我们投稿被退回来了,觉得我们跟他差太远。

 

 

我们预测高峰应该是在2月中,接近2月底。到2月15日以后(数字)果然下来了。我们现在的预测值是六七万,到现在为止全国累计是7万8左右,我们更接近权威的预测值。

 

柳叶刀预测最少到5月底,我们的预测在4月底基本控制。因为我们有国家强力的干预,以及群防群控的意识。

 

 

At the beginning of the outbreak, a study published on Lancet, a medical journal, predicted that the number of infected cases in China would reach 160,000 by early February based on a traditional research model, and that the situation could be controlled as early as the end of May, he said. His team previously predicted the peak of the epidemic in China to arrive in mid to late February. Zhong pointed out the predictions did not take into account some critical factors, such as the powerful prevention and control measures taken by the Chinese government. He said their estimate is based on the scientific model plus two strong influencing factors: the vigorous measures taken by China and the possible travel rush after the Spring Festival holiday. He said, as expected, the number of people infected has been declining. "And we are confident that it will be largely contained (in China) by the end of April." 

 

参考中国经验,应加强国际联防联控

 

钟南山表示,中国新增病例已经少于国外,国外突出的是韩国、伊朗、意大利,增加得非常快。中国的一些做法可能对他们会有一些启发。所以我应邀准备在这个周末就向欧洲呼吸学会做一个视频报告,向他们介绍一下中国的经验。所以,我们需要加强国际合作,这个是人类的病,不是一个国家的病,不能只是对付这一次疫情,要有一个长远机制。

 

"This morning I found that the number of new cases in China was less than that of abroad," said Zhong. "South Korea, Iran and Italy are facing a quick increase in number of new confirmed cases. " Zhong said he will give a video presentation to the European Respiratory Society this weekend at their invitation to introduce China's experience. "It is a disease of humans, not of a country," said Zhong. More international cooperation is needed, including setting up a long-term mechanism, Zhong said.

 

 

中国采取前所未有的措施,当时是群防群治,现在提高到联防联控。这个含义就不一样,有体制的改变,也有一个监督的改变,这个联防联控的机制很难得。所以,在一些疫情发展得很快的、蔓延很快的国家,我建议应该参考中国的经验,注意早发现早隔离。早隔离,不传染给别人是很关键的问题。

 

Under a strict mechanism of mass prevention and control, China has seen a rapid decrease in new cases of coronavirus. The mechanism is rare, and countries with rapid spread of the virus can refer to China's approach, suggested Zhong. It's a key to ensure an early detection and quarantine of infected cases.  

 

综合来源:新华网,央视新闻,环球时报英文版网站,广州日报,中国青年网,CGTN


 





 
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